On October 19, the U.S. State Department issued an unusual advisory for Americans abroad to “exercise heightened vigilance” as tensions around the world rise due to the Israel-Hamas war and the potential for terrorism increases. It’s part of the Travel Alert System, which has existed in one form or another since 1978 and is designed to help the public rate how safe a destination is at the time.
The current version of the system, launched in 2018, has a fluid ranking from Level 1 (take normal precautions) to Level 4 (travel ban), and includes countries that Americans visit (in some cases shows how dangerous the area is. The rankings are based on factors such as crime rates, social unrest, and terrorist threats. A State Department spokesperson said the information is intended to “provide clear, timely and reliable information about countries around the world so you can make informed travel decisions.”
Unsurprisingly, on October 14, the State Department raised Israel and the West Bank to Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) and the Gaza Strip to Level 4.
Here’s how advisories work and how to use them:
What is a travel advisory?
The U.S. State Department launched its travel advisory system in 1978, initially to warn airlines and travel companies. The system came under scrutiny after a 1988 explosion on a Pan Am flight from London to New York over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 people on board and 11 people on the ground.
The investigation found that U.S. authorities were aware of a credible threat to Pan Am flights but failed to inform the public. In response, the media and consulates began issuing travel warnings. The United States introduced its current four-tier advisory system in 2018. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand also have nearly identical versions.
The State Department considers a country’s political instability, crime trends, health care standards, and threats of kidnapping and terrorism to determine the rankings. (Politics ultimately plays an implicit role.) Some countries, such as Russia, are given a Level 4 ranking in part because the U.S. government may have limited ability to assist its citizens. It is being Some countries have been moved to Level 4 due to crises such as the military coup that recently rocked Niger.
When the travel advisory system was reinstated in 2018, it included a state-by-state evaluation of Mexico, which receives more than 11 million American travelers annually. “While some Mexican states are very safe for American travelers, other states are dangerous due to drug trafficking violence,” says Ryan Larsen, executive director of the Institute for Global Engagement at Western Washington University. . Yucatan and Campeche are currently in Level 1, and six other Mexican states, including Sinaloa, are in Level 4.
(For solo female travelers, we share tips for staying safe on the road.)
Epidemics and natural disasters may also prompt an increase in the number of travel advisories. Americans may be urged to reconsider visiting countries that are recovering from tsunamis and massive wildfires. This is because their presence may hinder reconstruction efforts. This occurred after the February 2023 earthquake in Turkey. Such recommendations may continue for weeks or months.
Larsen, who wrote the paper on U.S. travel warnings, said the most stringent recommendations in history were issued in April 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, approximately 80% of the world’s countries were at Level 4.
As of this writing, approximately 70% of the world’s countries are rated Level 1 or Level 2 by the State Department, indicating relative safety. There are currently 21 countries in Level 3 and 21 countries in Level 4.
How to use travel advisories
Before booking international travel, check how your destination ranks on the State Department’s website. Level 1 and 2 countries are considered relatively safe, but you still need to register with the U.S. Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP). This allows Americans abroad to use their smartphones to receive updates on travel advisories and warnings about emerging dangers (protests, extreme weather) in their destinations.
Level 3 countries are considered more dangerous for international travelers and “must reconsider travel,” according to the State Department. If you’re heading to a Level 3 country, which currently includes Pakistan and Colombia, do extensive research about its safety and the places you’ll be visiting, advises Jun Wen, professor of tourism at Australia’s Edith Cowan University. For example, some remote parts of the Colombian Amazon still suffer from drug-related violence, while cities such as Cartagena and Medellin are relatively safe. Taking a fully guided group tour or private tour can also help you navigate destinations where political instability or crime may affect safety.
Wen said travelers should study not only the advisories provided by their own countries, but also those provided by the US, UK and Australia to broaden their understanding of the risks in Level 3 countries. For countries in level 4, the “do not travel” recommendation is even more clear.
Other countries have also issued warnings to their citizens about visiting the U.S. Canada recently notified LGBTQ travelers that they may be affected by the laws of certain U.S. states. Meanwhile, Australia is warning its citizens visiting the United States to be wary of rising crime rates and gun violence, and to learn safety strategies in the event of a mass shooting.
People visiting countries with a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory are not only risking their safety; They may also have travel insurance, said Lin-Chi Kwok, a professor of tourism management at California State Polytechnic State University, Pomona.
(How travel insurance can and won’t help you when your plans change.)
They will have to pay much higher premiums, and their insurance may be invalidated if the destination’s recommendations are raised. “Medical coverage may also be minimal, especially if there is a travel advisory in place for a disease or outbreak,” Kwok said. “We encourage Americans to think twice before traveling to Level 3 and especially Level 4 destinations.”
Warning and impact on tourism
Larsen argues that travel advisories can be biased. His research found that the United States does not often exaggerate the risks of traveling to countries with which it has bad relations, but it often underestimates the risks of visiting close allies. Raising travel advisories could cause diplomatic tensions between the two countries. Once the country is raised to Level 3 or 4, many tourists will avoid visiting, and many U.S. universities will no longer allow students to participate in study abroad programs.
The economic impact of the level change will affect individual businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and travel agencies. For example, J2 Adventures, a Jewish-centered travel company, said most of its group trips to Israel in the fall were canceled in the wake of the start of the Israel-Hamas war (and higher advisory levels), according to its co-founder. Guy Miro says. “This is not just due to violence on the ground, but also practical considerations such as the accessibility of commercial flights,” he says. “Most tourists from North America and around the world couldn’t come here even if they wanted to.”
Ronan O’Connell is an Australian journalist and photographer who divides his time between Ireland, Thailand and Western Australia.
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