Experts say the anti-far-right bulwark has protected the European Union from political shocks.
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Sighs of relief were heard across Europe after exit polls revealed a surprise victory for a left-wing coalition in France’s legislative elections on Sunday.
Centrists feared that a far-right government in France, the European Union’s second-largest economy, could create economic and political instability and undermine the EU’s strong support for Ukraine.
But with parliament in limbo and no clear path to a coalition government, the political deadlock in Paris still casts uncertainty over France’s ability to exert influence in Brussels.
Final results on Monday morning showed that the left-wing New Popular Front coalition won 182 seats out of the 577 seats in the French National Assembly, President Macron’s centrist coalition won 168 seats and the far-right National Rally won 143 seats.
That means a left-wing government could end up sharing power with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
Experts say Macron has emerged with his political credibility intact despite losing his seats in parliament. “It will not be as weakened as we expected and France will be able to continue to play its international role as before, with a certain amount of glamour,” Federico Santo Pinto, director of the French think tank IRIS, told Euronews.
A strong government in Paris is seen as a vital pillar of EU stability, and with France now entering uncharted political territory and plagued by uncertainty over who will rule in the future, analysts are calling for “pragmatic” solutions that can “contain” the threat of the far right while still delivering on its immediate priorities.
For Olivia Lazard, a research fellow at the think tank Carnegie Europe, the far-right’s unexpected defeat in the second round means that Macron “maintains his credibility” while France can avoid “a retreat into a sovereigntist or nationalist narrative that is clearly anti-European.”
“France remains one of the key European bastions against the rise of the far-right and Russian influence at the moment,” Lazard told Euronews Radio Schuman. “That means that in terms of defence issues, Europe will still remain safe for a relatively long time.”
Kyiv’s “relief”
A victory in the second round for the far-right National Coalition party, which came in first in the first round a week earlier, would have posed a further threat to EU support for Ukraine.
Marine Le Pen’s party has historical ties to Russia and has vowed to curb French aid to Ukraine. It was controversially awarded a €9 billion loan from Russian banks in 2014, even as Russia was under sanctions for its illegal occupation of Crimea.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was one of the first of the EU’s 27-nation leaders to react to the exit polls. “Enthusiasm in Paris, disappointment in Moscow, relief in Kiev,” Tusk said on social media platform X. “In Warsaw, it’s enough to satisfy us.”
European leaders, particularly in the east, feared that forcing Macron into a power-sharing deal with the far-right government would weaken his influence in foreign policy and, as a result, France’s financial and military support for Kyiv.
Le Pen’s party has significantly shifted its stance on the war ahead of June’s European elections, saying it would continue defense aid but would not send long-range missiles or other weapons that could enable Ukraine to attack Russian territory.
But the leader of the far-left party Independence France (LFI), which is part of the victorious left-wing New Popular Front coalition, has also been accused of being sympathetic to Russia in the past.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a French advocate of military non-alignment, said in February that “the time has come for peace talks with Ukraine that include a mutual security clause” and has consistently opposed sending advanced weaponry to Kiev.
Aid for Ukraine is one of the issues that could destabilize the New Popular Front, which blends many types of socialism, from soft left to far left.
For Laetitia Langlois, an academic at the University of Angers, the center-left Socialist Party (PS) and its leader, Raphael Glucksmann, could play a key role in realizing a pro-Ukrainian coalition.
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Mr. Mélenchon’s Liberal Party won 77 seats, the most votes from the left-leaning New Popular Front. The center-left moderate Socialist Party, including MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, and its allies won 59 seats.
“As you know, Raphaël Glucksmann, who is obviously a strong supporter of Ukraine, will probably try to soften the platform of the French Indomitable Party,” Langlois explained. “I think there is a consensus domestically in terms of supporting Ukraine and defending democratic values against an aggressive and tyrannical country.”
“I think it will be difficult even for the Indomitable France party to maintain a position in the government that casts doubt on France’s current support for Ukraine,” she added.
Climate activists breathe a sigh of relief
The defeat of the National Coalition has also been welcomed by defenders of the European Green Deal.
Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally party and a candidate for the French prime ministerial position, has previously called on the French government to “abandon” the Green Deal and criticised EU environmental policies as “punitive”.
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The left-wing coalition, on the other hand, wants a climate plan that aims to be carbon neutral by 2050 and wants France to become a powerhouse in renewable energy sources such as offshore wind and hydroelectric power.
“The French election is a wake-up call for European leaders – it’s time to act to tackle high household energy bills caused by deindustrialization, underinvestment and dependence on imported gas, oil and coal,” said Neil McCullough, director of Strategic Perspectives, a European think tank.
The National Coalition and its European allies had vowed to toughen the European Green Deal ahead of the European elections, a position also adopted by many centre-right parties across Europe, sparking widespread criticism that traditional conservative parties are allowing the far-right to enter the mainstream.
But experts have again warned that a weakened Macron could have a negative impact on the fight against climate change.
“If Parliament can build a stronger coalition culture, this is good news for the climate effort in France,” said Laura Vallejo, special climate adviser at French think tank IDDRI.
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“Macron may continue to have a strong personal commitment to international climate and financial issues as he has in the past, but the current political situation, with the world watching, makes his position less clear.”
