Tusk’s Civic Alliance coalition maintained its lead over the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, and the far-right Coalition entered the European Parliament for the first time.
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Early forecasts for the outcome of Poland’s European Parliament elections suggest that Tusk’s Civic Alliance will maintain its lead over his rival Law and Justice party (PiS), likely resulting in a similar outcome to that of December’s national elections.
With 38% of the vote, Tusk’s political coalition should be able to send around 21 MEPs to the new European Parliament, according to an Ipsos exit poll published by Polish television station TVN24.
The right-wing populist party PiS came in second with 33.9% of the predicted vote.
Poland’s European elections are being seen as a test for Tusk’s party, which defeated PiS in the first election in a decade.
After forming a coalition government following December’s general election, Tusk has sought to establish himself and his party as a major force in Polish politics.
During the election campaign, he framed the vote as a choice between security within the European Union and a dangerous future outside it.
Tusk, a former European Council president, has maintained a staunchly pro-European stance in contrast to his political rival, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who came out against the European Union after voting in Warsaw on Sunday.
The other parties in Tusk’s coalition government include the centre-right Third Way, which is expected to get 8.2% of the vote, and the Left Party, which is expected to get 6.6%.
The far-right nationalist party Rally is also expected to enter the European Parliament for the first time with 11.9% of the vote, a victory for the party after it fell short of the 5% threshold in the 2019 election.
It is a patchwork party made up of a coalition of several parties further right than PiS, including nationalists, liberals and monarchists with hardline views, including anti-Semitic and anti-LGBTQ+ positions.
Voter turnout is lower than it was five years ago
The European Parliament elections will be Poland’s third in about eight months, after parliamentary elections were held in October last year and local elections in April.
Turnout in this year’s European Parliament elections was 39%, down from 45.7% in 2019.
According to Jan Kubik, director of the Slavic and East European Studies department at University College London, voter turnout was crucial to the outcome of Poland’s election.
“A low turnout means, as I suspect, that people are paying more attention to important domestic issues. A high turnout means that people are taking their domestic issues to the EU more broadly,” Kubik said.
