Idyllic holiday destinations can become veritable hells, as the Greek islands and Sicily experienced this summer, due to the wildfires and extreme heatwave that ravaged many parts of Spain this summer. Both phenomena are part of the catalog of disasters associated with anthropogenic climate change resulting from dependence on fossil fuels. The climate crisis threatens people’s health and national economies. And in the case of tourism, where Europe’s position is at stake, Europe is the most-visited region on earth and its tourism sector has a turnover of around 2 trillion euros ($2.171 trillion) each year. ), but forecasts point to significant impacts and a decline in visitor numbers. As global warming progresses, it will have an impact on some regions. But will the damage be the same across Europe? No, there are winners and losers, and the southern part of the continent has the worst prognosis, according to an analysis carried out by the European Commission’s scientific advisor, the Joint Research Center (JRC).
“EU policies aim to maintain Europe’s status as a major tourist destination,” said the report, which includes research by Spanish analysts David García-León and Juan Carlos Siscal. The book explains. The JRC study, entitled ‘Regional impact of climate change on tourism demand in Europe’, seeks to provide an approximation of how visits to different destinations will change depending on the level of warming. It is said that In all scenarios, her eight regions in Spain will be most affected by the reduction in overnight stays. These are the Balearic Islands, Murcia, the Valencia region, Extremadura, Andalusia, the Madrid region, Castilla-La Mancha, and Catalonia. Moreover, Spain will be the European country to lose the most tourists after Cyprus, Greece and Portugal.
Global warming is already hovering around 1.2 degrees Celsius. This means that the average surface temperature across the planet is 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than it was before the industrial revolution, before humans relied on burning fossil fuels for energy and greenhouse gas emissions skyrocketed. As long as the world economy relies on fuels that cause these emissions, warming will continue as the gases accumulate in the atmosphere and remain there for decades or even centuries. In its research, the JRC proposes four scenarios for temperature rise. Two are optimistic scenarios (warming will remain at 1.5°C or 2°C) and two are pessimistic (warming will reach 3°C or 4°C).
In the eight regions of Spain mentioned, a decrease in overnight stays is predicted in all four scenarios analyzed. However, the situation becomes complicated if temperatures increase by 3 and 4 degrees Celsius. For example, up to 8.16% of overnight stays will be lost in the Balearic Islands if the temperature rises by 4°C, while Murcia will lose the number of overnight stays. 6.8%, and 3.2% in the Valencia region. For this analysis, JRC experts based their 2019 tourism data, which is the closest to current data, after several years of negative effects from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Greek region of the Ionian Islands, which was severely affected by wildfires this summer, will be the most affected by this 4°C warming scenario, with overnight stays falling by 9.1%. This was followed by Greek islands in the North Aegean Sea (-9%), South Aegean Islands (-8.6%) and Cyprus (-8.2%). 5th and his 7th place are respectively the Balearic Islands and the Murcia region of Spain.
The study analyzed the impact in 267 European regions. Further south on the continent, a decline in tourism is predicted in 50 years under a 4°C warming scenario. Conversely, 53 regions are expected to see a significant increase in overnight stays of more than 5%. The area that will benefit the most is West Wales in England, which is expected to see an increase of around 16%.
“There is a clear north-south pattern in changes in tourism demand, with northern regions benefiting from climate change and southern regions facing significant declines,” the report explains. “This pattern is more severe in scenarios with higher levels of warming,” it adds.
To carry out the analysis, JRC experts used historical I have created an evaluation. The type of destination is also taken into account: urban, coastal, rural, winter mountain, mixed. Then, based on this data, we predict how tourist demand will change over the months, as well as the fluctuations in accommodation.
Tourists visit Rome’s Fontana delle Naiadi during the European heat wave in August, when temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius in some cities. Yara Nardi (Reuters)
Implementation of the Paris Agreement
Regarding monthly demand, changes in the “seasonality pattern of tourism” are expected. “Nordic coastal regions are expected to see a significant increase in demand during the summer and early autumn, while southern coastal regions are expected to experience a decline in tourism over the summer, especially in more severe climate scenarios,” the scientists said. explains. Regarding tourism demand in general, the climate impact is positive in all warming scenarios, and demand growth across Europe is projected to be between 0.35% and 1.58% depending on the scenario. “However, the results hide a high degree of heterogeneity between regions,” the report authors warn, pointing to this north-south difference.
By country, Cyprus (with tourism demand down by up to 8.28% in the worst-case warming scenario) is the hardest hit. This is followed by Greece (-7.26%), Portugal (-3.31%) and Spain, which will decline by 3.14% if warming reaches 4°C.
However, the situation is different within Spain as well. And there will be winners and losers. The regions that have benefited the most from the increase in accommodation are Cantabria, Asturias and Galicia. If global warming reaches 4°C, tourism demand in these regions will increase by 7.2%, 4.2%, and 3.1%, respectively.
However, that is the worst-case scenario and would mean a violation of the Paris Agreement. The Climate Change Convention, signed in 2015, obliges signatories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to near zero starting in the second half of this century. The agreement sets the goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and as much as possible below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is the safety limit set by scientists. Adhering to what was agreed in Paris would also be good news for Spain’s tourism industry. JRC research predicts that even if temperatures rise by just 1.5 degrees, tourism demand in Spain will fall by just 0.31%. For a 2°C increase, the rate of decline would be 0.4%, far short of the 3.14% expected if the temperature reached 4°C.
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