This article was originally published in Portuguese
Portuguese citizens usually have the lowest voter turnout in European Parliament elections. Will Portuguese people follow the trend of recent parliamentary elections and turn out to vote on June 9th?
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In the 2019 European elections, Portugal recorded its highest abstention rate since joining the European Union, at 68.6%, in contrast to a European voter turnout of around 50%.
As a study published by the European Parliament at the time revealed, political dissatisfaction was the main reason behind Portugal’s record abstention rate of 68.6% in the May 2019 European Parliament elections.
However, there is optimism that abstention may also decrease in the June 9 election, mirroring the trend seen in the recent parliamentary elections on March 10, when turnout reached 59.84 percent.
“Portuguese people feel European, they belong to Europe and they know the benefits the European Union brings, but there is the problem of connecting with European institutions and understanding how they work,” said Francisco Cordeiro de Araújo, a visiting assistant at the University of Lisbon’s law faculty.
According to him, “this question is more difficult because we are talking about an institution far from Portuguese territory, which in recent years has somehow invested in different forms of communication, even through social networks”.
“It will take time for these results to emerge, but I feel there is a growing sense of responsibility among people in Brussels and Strasbourg to spread the message and highlight the importance of the EU,” he added.
Fewer than half of Portuguese people could name Portugal’s MEP or European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, according to a survey by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation’s European Policy Barometer, showing that lack of knowledge about the European Union is another reason for abstaining from voting.
As the European Parliamentary elections approach, Portuguese young people, along with Romanians, stand out among the 27 Member States in terms of their voting intentions. The Eurobarometer on Youth and Democracy estimates that 77% of Portuguese aged 18-30 plan to vote to elect the 21 Portuguese MEPs to the European Parliament.
Who will gain and who will lose by abstaining?
The European elections are likely to reflect the rise of right-wing movements as seen in the domestic elections, and given the close contests in both elections, most voters are expected to stick to their existing beliefs.
Francisco Cordeiro de Araújo, a lecturer in international law, European Union law and political science at FDUL, believes that right-wing parties, especially those with a growing number of seats in parliament and electoral popularity, will benefit from this election, he stresses, especially parties aligned with this political philosophy that have not previously had seats in parliament.
European opinion polls indicate that the composition of the European Parliament may change in the next elections, with radical and populist parties on the left and right expected to gain more votes and seats, as opposed to moderate parties in the centre.
21 MEPs will again be leaving Portugal, but this time they could come from entirely different parties.
According to the latest poll conducted by the Catholic University for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, the Democratic Union (31 percent) and the Socialist Party (30 percent) are in a statistical tie, with the Right-wing Coalition slightly ahead of the Socialist Party. The right-wing Chega party has emerged as the third main political force with 15 percent of voting intentions.
