With the European Council’s reappointment of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen going smoothly as expected, attention now turns to the European Parliament, where von der Leyen must secure the necessary votes to approve her new mandate.
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The European Parliament was expected to follow the EU Parliament after the summit’s approval, but EU leaders were expected to resist Ursula von der Leyen’s reappointment more than the EU Parliament.
However, the situation has been reversed and while the European Council has taken the highest decision on employment, the parliamentary calculations still pose unresolved questions.
The strong performance of the leading European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialist Party, which together account for 17 of the 27 parties in the European Council, gave their negotiators considerable leverage ahead of a crucial EU summit on 27-28 June.
But poor performance from the Freedom and Green parties, who powered von der Leyen’s alliance during her last term, led to a slide in her parliamentary representation.
“The European Parliament is a much more dangerous minefield than the European Council dominated by von der Leyen’s European People’s Party,” an EU diplomat said.
Von der Leyen needs a majority of 361 votes in Strasbourg – more than half of the parliament’s 720 MEPs – but this support must be obtained by secret ballot, posing the biggest challenge in assessing support because it reduces MEP accountability and weakens party discipline.
“Berlaymont estimates that von der Leyen needs a further 40-50 votes because her team is currently counting on a majority of the 399 MEPs, but also expects 15% of “mavericks” to join in. [lawmakers voting differently from their parties]” the diplomat continued.
In 2019, the Christian Democrats-Liberals-Socialists coalition had 444 seats, and von der Leyen was appointed with 383 votes, just nine more than she needed at the time. She was supported by 14 MEPs from Italy’s Five Star Movement, 27 from Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS), and 13 from Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party.
Von der Leyen was a compromise candidate in that appointment process, but this time as the European People’s Party’s (EPP) leading candidate, Spitzenkandidat, she is trying to garner votes in a polarised parliament at a time when heated pre-election debates are making it difficult to forge a coalition government.
EU diplomats have suggested that parties from the main founding member countries appear to support the leaders’ proposed deal, with a few exceptions, such as France’s La République affiliate, which has said publicly that it will not vote for von der Leyen. Within the socialist camp, some members of Denmark’s European People’s Party (EPP) are reportedly at odds with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and may not back a deal that she approves.
Unexpected help
Taking these factors into account, it seems reasonable to assume that up to 15% of MEPs in a secret ballot majority could be “outcasts”.
So which MEPs, outside of broad coalition parties, will come to the rescue?
Firstly, the Greens have 54 MEPs and are ready to join the majority in support of von der Leyen, unlike last time when they voted against the EU.
“We’re not that high,” a Greens source told Euronews, suggesting that while there are clear red lines in the negotiations, their small size means they will negotiate constructively. But 12 Greens lawmakers are part of the German government, which supports von der Leyen in the council, so they may back her regardless of the group’s position.
During a meeting on Wednesday (26 June), von der Leyen suggested that a coalition with the conservative ECR was out of the question and that the leader of the Socialist group, Irache Garcia, would also be strongly opposed.
However, individual members of the ECR, especially MEPs from conservative-led countries such as Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala (who has four MEPs), may support her, especially if he supports today’s Council agreement.
But Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could provide important support, potentially strengthening his sympathies, along with his fellow Italians’ 24 MEPs.
Meloni was seen as worthy of the role of “kingmaker” in the Council, but unfortunately was ultimately shut out of discussions about the EU’s top post. After Meloni expressed dissatisfaction with the process and said he would abstain from voting on the appointment, Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, called for Italy to be involved in the decision-making process.
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Meloni’s objection is to the selection process, not the proposed name itself, and offering Italy a key post in the next EU executive may well change his mind.
Among the non-affiliated MEPs, Germany’s left-wing populist Sarah Wagenknecht movement (six MEPs) and Italy’s Five Star Movement (eight MEPs) are unlikely to gain support unless they join a political group that supports von der Leyen. Slovakia’s Smer, who is temporarily absent due to a suspension by the Socialist Group (S&D), may back von der Leyen if he is reinstated in exchange for the support of six MEPs, according to some media reports.
While the left and far-right groups (ID) have dropped out of the majority race, uncertainty remains over Orbán’s Fidesz (10 MEPs), known for its surprising moves, and the 20 MEPs from PiS may decide to back Orbán at the last minute, leaving their current conservative stronghold to follow Orbán in a new group in parliament that would continue the previous experience of cooperation between Eastern European countries, known as the Visegrad Group (V4).
There is also a group of 42 newly elected lawmakers who are not yet affiliated with any political group. This group may shrink before the July 4 deadline for groups to indicate their affiliations, but individual endorsements may also come from within the group.
