As voters prepare to head to the polls, Euronews correspondents analyse what’s at stake in the country’s key battlegrounds.
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From 6 to 9 June, some 373 million European Union voters will elect 720 new members of the European Parliament in the largest international vote in history.
But despite the EU’s increasingly visible role in tackling common challenges such as security, defence, climate change, the cost of living and migration, the outcome of the vote is likely to be heavily determined by domestic issues.
The vote will define the political landscape across the EU’s 27 member states at a critical time for Europe, with the far right on the rise and centrist parties languishing in much of the continent.
In some member states, the vote is positioned as a referendum on the ruling party’s role in the national government.
Euronews’ team of correspondents analyses what to watch in key countries as Europe heads into elections.
France: Far-right sensation Bardella ready to crush Macron’s liberals
Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old protégé of Marine Le Pen, has become a central figure in France’s election campaign, a rising star expected to lead the far-right Rally National party to a historic victory with about a third of the French vote.
With a sharp social media strategy and polished performances in election debates, Bardella has used his campaign to pave the way for what will likely be Le Pen’s last presidential election in 2027.
That presents a headache for President Emmanuel Macron and his liberal Renaissance party, which has been steadily slipping in the polls and could finish third if Socialist wildcard Raphael Glucksmann gets a last-minute boost.
Mr. Macron has been desperate to salvage his party’s humiliation, sending the prime minister to a face-to-face debate with Ms. Bardella as leadership candidate Valérie Heyer struggles to contain the rise of the far-right. The prime-time interview with Mr. Macron on the eve of the vote is a further sign of anxiety in his camp that a crushing defeat in the election could signal his downfall.
Grégoire Rolly is Euronews’ France correspondent in Brussels.
Spain: Amnesty and corruption debate polarizes political debate
Less than seven months after striking a controversial amnesty deal with Catalan separatists and winning a second term as Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist party is trailing the centre-right opposition by five seats, according to a Euronews superpoll.
The center-right Popular Party (PP) is seeking to capitalize on traditional voter discontent over the amnesty law and the judicial investigation of President Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez. The PP could also potentially win back the old votes of the centrist Ciudadanos party, which is projected to lose all nine of its seats.
The far-right Vox party is making small gains and some opinion polls predict that another far-right rival party, Se Acabó La Fiesta (The Party is Finished), could make it into the European Parliament for the first time.
Candidates and experts are aiming to put broader EU issues such as the climate crisis, security and migration at the centre of the election debate, while key domestic issues such as corruption and the rule of law continue to dominate the headlines.
Aida Sánchez Alonso is Euronews’ Spain correspondent based in Brussels.
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Italy: Giorgia Meloni aims for big gains at the expense of coalition partners
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the only EU leader to have chosen to head the electoral roll, in a highly strategic move aimed at channelling domestic support into a strong victory for his Italian Brothers party (FdI).
Under the election slogan “Con Giorgia, l’Italia cambia l’Europa” (With Giorgia, Italy transforms Europe), the FdI is leading the Italian opinion polls and could win an impressive 23 seats.
But this surge has come at the expense of Meloni’s governing partners in Rome. Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party is set to be Italy’s biggest loser tonight. After coming in first in the last European elections in 2019, Salvini’s party could come in fourth or even fifth this time.
A result would not only strengthen Meloni’s power at home, but could also establish him as a kingmaker in Brussels. He is being courted by center-right European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is desperate for his support to secure a second term, and far-right French President Marine Le Pen, who wants his support to unite far-right forces in the European Parliament to form a cross-party party.
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Vincenzo Genovese is Euronews’ Italy correspondent in Brussels.
Germany: Pressure on ruling coalition
As in many countries, the vote in Germany is being framed as a referendum on the country’s three-party ruling coalition of the Socialists, Freedom Party and Greens. Support for all parties is likely to stagnate or fall, with the Greens likely to be hit hardest by security and immigration outranking climate change as voters’ concerns.
The centre-right coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) is far ahead of other candidates.
Further to the right, the embattled Alternative for Germany (AfD) is also expected to see an increase in support, though much less than expected at the start of the year. Its leading candidate, Maximilian Kurler, is embroiled in an investigation into Chinese and Russian interference and was recently banned for making Nazi-esque comments in the media, which led to the AfD being expelled from its European Parliament peer group.
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The far-left anti-immigration Socialist Union of Germany party is also set to win up to seven seats and enter the European Parliament for the first time, as supporters of the anti-immigration AfD party find a new political base on the far left.
Belgium: Far-right Flemish separatists deepen divisions
Belgium’s European elections will undoubtedly be overshadowed by the simultaneous holding of federal and local elections that are considered crucial for the country’s future.
The far-right Flemish nationalist party Vlaams Belanger, which openly calls for the separation of Flanders and the division of the Belgian state, is currently expected to win around 27% of the Flemish vote.
Vlaams Belang has been shut down in the past for its extreme positions, but its growing popularity will make it difficult to maintain the practice, especially in Flanders.
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Meanwhile, a strong showing by the Flemish leader in the EU vote would bolster Europe’s far-right, which wants a fundamental overhaul of the European Union by weakening its powers, which happen to be concentrated in Brussels, the Belgian capital.
Portugal: Early Tests for New Minority Government
The European Parliament elections, coming just two months after a minority centre-right government was formed, will be an early test of whether Portugal’s ruling Democratic Union (AD) party can maintain its support base.
The party handed the job to its candidate, Sebastián Bugalho, a 28-year-old former political commentator and someone described by the country’s prime minister himself as “a bit controversial” for his hard-right views.
Opinion polls currently put AD neck and neck with the opposition Socialist Party (PS), which was defeated in March’s general elections by a corruption scandal involving a chief of staff to then-Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa.
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The survey dealt a major blow to the Socialist Party, but opinion polls show it is slowly regaining support in Midwestern constituencies.
The far-right Chega party is also expected to win four seats, placing it in the European Parliament for the first time, according to a Euronews poll, after a recent surge in support that threatens to upend Portugal’s entrenched two-party system.
Isabel Marques da Silva is Euronews’ Portuguese correspondent in Brussels.
Hungary: Former Orban ally becomes electoral rival
A former insider in Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s hardline right-wing government is trying to shake up Hungary’s elections by mobilizing voters disillusioned with the ruling Fidesz party’s grip on power.
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Peter Magyar shocked the public earlier this year by running against government corruption and propaganda machines and denouncing Orban’s “mafia state.” His newly formed Respect and Freedom (TISZA) party is on track to win up to four seats and enter the European Parliament for the first time.
A Euronews superpoll has Orban’s conservative alliance of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) comfortably topping the polls with around 10 seats, but crucially, for the first time its delegation in Brussels will hold a minority of Hungary’s 23-seat parliament.
The election also saw Hungarian state television host the first televised election debate in nearly two decades in a country where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has tight control over the media.
Poland: Focus on security
If there is one thing that unites Poland’s ruling party and opposition, it is their firm commitment to supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russia and its proxies.
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Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling Civic Alliance party and the far-right opposition Law and Justice (PiS) are currently neck and neck in the opinion polls, with both parties making Poland’s security a central focus of their European election campaigns.
Poland, which borders both Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, has recently seen a surge in the number of illegal migrants attempting to cross the border from Belarus, which Tusk has called a “hybrid war”.
The far-right League party also has five MEPs and is expected to enter the European Parliament for the first time.
Greece: State of democracy and economy are voters’ top concerns
The latest Eurobarometer found that 60% of Greeks are dissatisfied with the state of their country’s democracy and want the EU to prioritise upholding the rule of law.
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Discontent has persisted in the aftermath of a 2022 scandal that exposed the illegal wiretapping of opposition figures and journalists by the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, followed by a 2023 train disaster in which the government was accused of shielding politicians involved. Both incidents are suspected of being covered up by the ruling elite.
Mitsotakis won a majority in last June’s Greek parliamentary elections that many see as perpetuating a lack of accountability and transparency in government, yet his New Democrats party was the top vote-getter in a Euronews superpoll.
The cost of living crisis is also a key issue for voters of all ages, and Greek voters are looking to Europe for a common solution.
Maria Psara is Euronews’ Greece correspondent based in Brussels.
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Ireland: Housing and refugee influx are key election issues
Recent opinion polls have shown that support for the main opposition left-wing Sinn Féin party has fallen at the last minute, while the centre-right Fine Gael party has seen a rise in support, boosted by the change in its leader and Irish Prime Minister, Simon Harris.
There has also been a surge in independent candidates, who are expected to win at least three of Ireland’s 14 seats in the European Parliament.
Meanwhile, an unprecedented number of far-right candidates are vying for seats in the country amid a surge in refugees and asylum seekers from Ukraine and other war-torn countries. This relatively new phenomenon comes as the government continues to struggle with a severe housing crisis that has left tens of thousands of citizens, including children, homeless and living in makeshift accommodation.
The anger of far-right elements has been directed at refugee families, with attacks, arson and violent protests occurring outside refugee centers housing children in recent years.
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However, support for the European Union overall remains high, with 84% in favour of membership.
Shauna Murray is Euronews’ Brussels correspondent.
Sándor Zsiros and Andreas Rogal also contributed reporting.
