A sharp shift to the political right is likely to mean the next European Commission president will be a conservative, but the right-wing camp is affected by a number of political cleavages, some of which are almost insurmountable, according to an exclusive Euronews Superpoll.
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Conservative forces are expected to win the European elections, according to an exclusive new Euronews Super Poll from the Euronews Polling Centre.
Centre-right, far-right and extreme-right parties are leading the opinion polls in major EU countries.
Meanwhile, in some countries, Liberal Democrats are likely to face tough defeats as the centre-left settles into a fragile plateau of moderate defeats and modest victories.
The main outcome of the election will be the appointment of a new conservative president of the European Commission, potentially setting up a fierce fight between the existing and new parliamentary groups and coalitions over who will run the EU’s affairs for the next five years.
Digging deeper
The European People’s Party (EPP) is set to confirm its relative majority status in the European Parliament.
However, far-right and ultra-conservative forces are also likely to win big victories, according to Euronews polls. In France, Identity and Democracy (ID) member Marine Le Pen and her National Rally (RN) party are expected to win, while in Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and his Brothers of Italy (FdI) party are on track to win.
In the Netherlands, ID member Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom (PVV) is leading the polls, while in Romania Adela Mirza and her Right Alternative (AD) are competing for the lead with the governing parties PNL (EPP) and PSD (S&D).
Since March, EPP-affiliated parties such as Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU), Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO), and Spain’s Alberto Nunez Feijoc’s People’s Party (PP) have been leading opinion polls in Germany.
Germany’s Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) and Spain’s People’s Party (PP) are both in opposition, but in Poland, Tusk’s Polish Workers’ Party is the ruling party.
The Social Democrat (S&D) group is likely to compete for second place against the far-right and national conservatives.
The two important countries still in power with left-wing, pro-labour chancellors are Olaf Scholz in Germany and Pedro Sánchez in Spain.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) are in third place, one seat behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Polls suggest that the Free Democrats’ Renew party will face big losses in support across Europe, with France, its former stronghold, set to be a battleground. Macron’s Renaissance party is part of the party.
New President Valerie Heyer will expel Dutch liberals from former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), following the country’s agreement last week to form a four-way coalition with Wilders’s Democrats for Freedom (PVV).
Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her party, FdI, are the largest members of the nationalist-conservative ECR, along with Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) and Spain’s Vox party.
The ECR was formed in early 2009 when the British Conservative Party left the European People’s Party to join other European political movements with similar political values. Anti-European federalism, conservative social policies and criticism of the French and German EU leadership became its trademarks.
The UK Conservative Party left the ECR after Brexit.
ECR members are caught between upholding traditional conservative values and a far-right stance: the far-right groups ECR and ID share a strong anti-immigration and populist rhetoric.
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After a far-right rally in Madrid last week, Mr Meloni and Ms Le Pen signalled something of a reconciliation after years of rivalry, perhaps in an attempt to find common ground and work together in post-EU election talks.
The expected outcome for Meloni and Le Pen’s parties gives them a rare opportunity to have a decisive influence on EU policy-making for the next five years.
Relations between Le Pen and the AfD were strained on Tuesday after the party’s head of electoral register, Maximilian Kurer, said in an interview with the Italian daily La Repubblica that “never say that someone in an SS uniform is automatically a criminal.”
Questions remain
The Conservative camp is deeply divided: many EPP members are federalists or strongly pro-European, but the majority of ECR and ID members are not.
A centre-right and centre-right coalition government based on different European principles and political strategies, such as the EU’s right to respect the rule of law in all member states, the creation of a strengthened EU defence architecture and investment in the green economy, could be doomed before it even begins.
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The vote numbers suggest a Conservative majority, meaning the conservative party could have a say in appointing the committee chair.
Still, it is the legal prerogative of national governments to decide who runs the EU Commission. France, Germany and Spain have liberal and social democratic governments, respectively. It would therefore be unrealistic to appoint a Commission President based on the results of the EU elections without the active involvement of Emmanuel Macron.
Similarly, a return to a grand coalition government between the EPP, Renew and S&D would go against the will of EU voters.
Even a coalition government between the EPP, ECR and Renew seems unlikely to materialise: French President Emmanuel Macron, Renew’s biggest backer, will find it hard to find common ground with the ECR and vice versa.
Opinion poll results
“Emmanuel Macron will promote the traditional majority, the EPP, S&D and Renew, which is justified by the figures in our forecast,” said Francesco Sismondini of the Euronews polling centre.
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Ultraconservatives are trying to avoid that outcome by rebuilding good relations with one another, as seen at the far-right Vox party’s conference in Madrid last week.
“The ECR and leaders of far-right groups like Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen can try to find common ground,” Sismondini explains, “and to get there they will have to make difficult decisions, such as breaking with the AfD for Marine Le Pen and becoming more moderate on issues like immigration, social issues and support for Ukraine.”
But the playing field is still wide open: it’s not just a matter of votes, politics also needs to have a say, says Sismondini. “When negotiations start after the elections, we will see that political groups in the European Parliament are not so rigid. [to each other]” “.
However, the victory of the far right in several key countries will inevitably affect appointments to top EU positions, such as the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
“We can expect efforts from right-wing and far-right political groups to gain support from traditional far-right voters,” Sismondini said. “Some of the efforts are very clear. The Rally National is very strong. Macron’s party in France is in second place, but it is 16% behind the Rally National.”
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