Foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays will exceed 2019 levels in the first quarter of 2024. The recovery has been steady but uneven across regions and source markets due to continuing risks. Sporting events, high travel demand and inflation drive tourism spending to record levels.
Europe’s tourism industry has experienced a strong recovery in the first months of 2024. Based on reporting destination data, foreign arrivals (+7.2%) and overnight stays (+6.5%) in the first quarter of this year exceeded 2019 numbers. This continues the upward trend observed in 2023, with the number of foreign arrivals being 1.2% below 2019 levels and the number of overnight stays being only 0.2% below. This recovery has been primarily driven by strong intra-regional travel from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. This is coupled with demand from the US, which remains Europe’s most important long-distance source market.
This is according to the latest edition of the quarterly report “European Tourism Trends and Prospects” released today by the European Travel Commission (ETC). This report monitors the performance of European tourism in the first quarter of this year and the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influencing the industry’s outlook for the continent.
ETC President Miguel Sanz commented on the publication of the report: “Early figures for 2024 reveal a positive outlook for European tourism this year. Consumer travel spending has increased markedly across Europe and is expected to reach record numbers in the coming months. The boost will support travel and tourism businesses that have been hit hard by years of pandemic and ongoing economic instability, but the tourism industry as a whole benefits local residents. , high prices and geopolitical risks remain major obstacles for tourism as the country strives to adopt more responsible practices to protect the environment.
Europe’s tourism industry recovers strongly, but disparities remain
Year-to-date data shows Southern European destinations have received more international travelers compared to 2019 levels, including Serbia (+47%), Bulgaria (+39%), Turkiye (+35%) and Malta. shown to be leading the recovery in numbers. (+35%), Portugal (+17%) and Spain (+14%). These destinations offer competitively priced vacation experiences, often combined with mild winter temperatures. Nordic countries are also seeing increased tourist activity, with overnight stays increasing above pre-pandemic levels. This increase is particularly pronounced in Norway (+18%), Sweden (+12%) and Denmark (+9%). This high interest is partly driven by the attraction of winter sports, his tourism and the Northern Lights.
Meanwhile, the Baltic states continue to lag behind due to the challenges of the Ukraine war, with Latvia (-34%) having the lowest number of international arrivals post-pandemic, followed by Estonia (-15%) and Lithuania ( -14%). %).
Data for the first months of 2024 also shows uneven performance in the long-distance source market. The United States and Canada continue to dominate, reflecting trends for 2023. The first quarter of this year also saw an increase in tourists from Latin America, particularly Brazil. Conversely, the APAC region has shown signs of improvement compared to the previous quarter, but the recovery remains slow and uneven. Chinese tourists are starting to return to Europe, but the recovery from Japan is still slow.
Despite challenges, consumer demand remains strong
Inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty remain significant concerns for the European tourism industry. The war in Ukraine continues to impact tourist flows, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the war between Israel and Hamas is currently having a major impact on travel from Israel to Europe, with Israeli arrivals dropping 54% year-on-year across reporting countries in the first quarter. Accommodation costs (59%), business costs (52%) and lack of human resources (52%) are considered the biggest challenges for tourism industry professionals.
Conversely, online social conversations about travel in Europe have an overwhelmingly positive tone, surpassing discussions about other world regions such as the Americas, Africa, and Asia-Pacific by early 2024. Highlights include admiring the beauty of the seasons, outdoor adventures, and unique cultural events. Carnival is celebrated in European countries.
Consumer data shows that travel remains a top priority in 2024. Early 2024 saw an increase in intra-European and long-haul tourist spending. According to the forecast, tourists will spend €742.8 billion in Europe this year, an increase of 14.3% compared to 2023. This is due to both inflation and evolving travel preferences, with travelers potentially opting for longer stays and more diverse experiences. Germany will become the main source of tourist spending, accounting for 16% of total European spending in 2024.
Paris Olympics and Euro 2024 expected to drive demand in France and Germany
This summer, Europe will host two major sporting events: the Olympic Games in France and the UEFA European Football Championship in Germany. The Olympics are expected to bring a surge in domestic and international tourists, and the impact will extend beyond the city of Paris itself. Inbound spending growth is projected to be 13% in Paris and 24% across France at 2019 levels. The Euros will be less concentrated in the German capital, with matches being held in 10 cities. This is expected to result in more distributed benefits, with all participating cities set to experience a significant increase in tourism receipts.
