The European Travel Commission has confirmed that Europe’s tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery.
The recovery is progressing steadily, but ongoing risks mean the pace of recovery will vary across regions and supply markets.
According to the European Travel Commission’s quarterly report “Trends and Outlook for European Tourism”, the association confirms that the European tourism industry is experiencing a strong recovery. The report tracks the performance of European tourism in the first quarter of the year, taking into account macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that may affect the industry.
Compiling data from reporting sources, the number of foreign tourists in the first quarter of this year was up 7.2% and the number of overnight stays was up 6.5% compared to 2019. This would keep the highs for 2023, when the number of foreign tourists was down 1.2% and the number of overnight stays down 0.2% compared to 2019.
The countries where increased intra-regional travel has had the greatest impact on the recovery are Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. Demand from the United States is also expected to influence the recovery, as the United States remains Europe’s most important long-haul departure market.
Commenting on the report’s release, ETC Chairman Miguel Sanz said: “Early figures for 2024 indicate a bright outlook for European tourism this year. Consumer travel spending has increased significantly across Europe and is set to hit record numbers in the coming months. This increase will support travel and tourism businesses that have been heavily impacted by years of the pandemic and ongoing economic uncertainty. Yet high prices and geopolitical risks remain major obstacles for tourism, and the industry as a whole is striving to adopt more responsible practices for the benefit of local people and to protect the environment.”
European tourism recovers strongly, but disparities remain
Year-to-date data shows that Southern European destinations are leading the recovery in international visitor numbers compared to 2019 levels, including Serbia (+47%), Bulgaria (+39%), Turkey (+35%), Malta (+35%), Portugal (+17%) and Spain (+14%). These destinations offer competitively priced vacation experiences, often combined with milder winter temperatures. Nordic countries are also seeing a rise in tourist activity, with overnight stays increasing above pre-pandemic levels. The increase is particularly noticeable in Norway (+18%), Sweden (+12%) and Denmark (+9%). This high interest is partly driven by winter sports tourism and the allure of the Northern Lights.
Meanwhile, the Baltic states continue to lag due to challenges from the war in Ukraine, with Latvia having the lowest number of international travelers since the pandemic (-34%), followed by Estonia (-15%) and Lithuania (-14%).
Data from the first months of 2024 also show an uneven performance of long-haul origin markets. The United States and Canada continue to dominate, mirroring the trends of 2023. The first quarter of the year also saw an increase in travelers from Latin America, especially Brazil. Conversely, Asia Pacific is showing signs of improvement compared to the previous quarter, but the recovery remains slow and uneven. Chinese travelers are starting to return to Europe, but the recovery from Japan is still slow.
Despite challenges, consumer demand remains strong
Inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty remain major concerns for the European tourism industry. The war in Ukraine continues to affect tourist flows, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Israel’s war with Hamas is currently having a major impact on travel from Israel to Europe, with the number of Israeli tourists in the first quarter down 54% compared to last year across reported destinations. Accommodation costs (59%), business costs (52%) and staff shortages (52%) are seen as the biggest challenges for tourism industry professionals.
In contrast, online social conversations surrounding travel to Europe have an overwhelmingly positive tone, outperforming discussions about other regions such as the Americas, Africa and Asia Pacific in early 2024. Highlights include praise for the seasonal beauty, outdoor adventures and unique cultural events such as Carnival celebrated in European countries.
According to consumer data, travel will remain a top priority in 2024. The beginning of 2024 saw an increase in intra-European and long-distance tourist spending. Forecasts indicate that tourists will spend €742.8 billion in Europe this year, up 14.3% compared to 2023. This will be driven by both inflation and changing travel preferences, where tourists may opt for longer stays and more diverse experiences. Germany will be the main generator of tourist spending, accounting for 16% of total spending in Europe in 2024.
The Paris Olympics and Euro 2024 are expected to drive demand in France and Germany
This summer, Europe will host two major sporting events: the Olympic Games in France and the UEFA European Football Championship in Germany. The Olympics will bring a surge in domestic and international tourism, and the impact will not be limited to the city of Paris. Inbound spending is forecast to increase by 13% in Paris and 24% across France compared to 2019. Instead of being concentrated in the German capital, the Euros will be played in 10 cities. This will result in a more distributed benefit, with all participating cities expected to see a significant increase in tourism revenues.
