According to the latest research from the World Economic Forum, international tourist arrivals and the travel and tourism sector’s overall contribution to the global economy are projected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by the lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions and a strong desire to travel after years of restrictions.
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The top economies in 2024 are the United States, Spain, Japan, France and Australia. The Middle East has the strongest recovery in international tourist arrivals (up 20% compared to 2019), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all show strong recoveries of around 90% in 2023.
These are some of the key findings of the Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 (TTDI), a biennial report published in collaboration with the University of Surrey, which analyses the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries based on a range of factors and policies.
“This year marks an inflection point for Travel and Tourism, as we believe it has the potential to drive growth and benefit communities through economic and social transformation,” said Francisco Betti, Head of the Global Industries Team at the World Economic Forum.
“TTDI provides a window into the current and future of travel and tourism, enabling leaders to stay on top of developments in this complex sector and sustainably unlock its potential for communities and countries around the world.”
Post-pandemic recovery
The global tourism industry is expected to recover from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and exceed pre-crisis levels, mainly due to a strong increase in demand around the world, coupled with increased air travel, greater international openness, and growing interest in and investment in natural and cultural attractions.
But the global recovery has been mixed: 71 of the 119 countries ranked have improved their scores since 2019, but the average index score is just 0.7% above its pre-pandemic level.
While the financial industry has weathered the shock of the global health crisis, it continues to grapple with other external challenges, from growing macroeconomic, geopolitical and environmental risks, to increased scrutiny of sustainability efforts and the impact of new digital technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence.
In addition, labor shortages persist, and airline capacity, capital investment, productivity and other sector supply factors are not keeping up with growing demand. This imbalance is exacerbated by global inflation, increasing price and service issues.
Highlights of TTDI 2024
Of the top 30 index scores in 2024, 26 are high-income countries: 19 are in Europe, seven are in Asia-Pacific, three are in the Americas and one (United Arab Emirates) is in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The top 10 countries in 2024 are the United States, Spain, Japan, France, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Italy and Switzerland.
The survey findings highlight that high-income countries generally continue to have more favourable conditions for the development of travel and tourism, supported by favourable business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.
Still, developing countries have seen the greatest improvements in recent years. Among upper-middle-income countries, China consolidated its position in the top 10, with emerging travel and tourism powerhouses such as Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey following China into the top quartile.
More broadly, low- to upper-middle-income economies account for more than 70% of countries that improved their scores since 2019, with MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa among the biggest improvers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only high-income economies to feature in the top 10 biggest improvers between 2019 and 2024.
Despite this progress, the TTDI warns that significant investment is needed to close the gap in conditions and market share between developing and high-income countries. One way to achieve this is through sustainably using natural and cultural assets, which are less correlated with a country’s income level than other factors and can offer developing countries opportunities for tourism-led economic development.
“Bridging the gap between different economies is essential to building a strong environment in which the travel and tourism sector can thrive,” said Is Tasiadia, professor and dean of the School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the University of Surrey.
“The sector has great potential to boost prosperity and reduce global risks, but that potential can only be fully realised through a strategic and comprehensive approach.”
