PATA’s latest report predicts a strong recovery in tourism in the Asia-Pacific region, with international tourist arrivals predicted to surpass 2019 levels by 2024.
BANGKOK, Thailand – In its interim Asia Pacific Visitor Forecast 2024-2026, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) predicts a significant increase in international visitor numbers to the region in 2024, reinforcing its earlier forecast released earlier this year.
The update, due to be released in early July, confirms the previous report’s prediction of robust annual growth in international visitor arrivals (IVA) to and across Asia Pacific, with visitor arrivals projected to exceed pre-pandemic 2019 levels for the first time in 2024 in a mild scenario and surpassing them by 2025 in a moderate scenario. However, challenges remain, with visitor numbers projected to be 31% below 2019 levels in 2024 and 13% below the benchmark by 2026 in a severe scenario.
Additionally, the Association, with support from Visa, has published 39 individual reports in the “Asia Pacific Destination Forecast 2024-2026” series, featuring the latest insights and data from Euromonitor International and Visa.
“The grim scenario projections are a reminder that while current conditions are favorable and growth projections are broadly bullish, dangers still loom,” said PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid. “Geopolitical tensions, climate change impacts and economic uncertainty are proving to be sources of impediment to tourism growth in Asia Pacific, highlighting the critical need for continued efforts to come up with innovative solutions that can effectively address these challenges.”
While recovery rates will vary across regions and sub-regions within Asia Pacific, under a benign scenario, IVA numbers in Asia, the Americas and the Pacific are all projected to exceed 2019 levels in 2024. This momentum is forecast to continue in 2025 and 2026, with IVA numbers across all three destination regions expected to exceed 2019 levels.
As expected, the severe scenario projections are much weaker, with the number of IVAs projected to continue rising to 2019 levels by the end of 2026, but at a much more gradual rate of increase.
At the destination sub-region level, the medium-term scenario projects very high annual growth rates for IVAs in 2024, with 8 of the 11 sub-regions projected to experience annual growth rates of over 10%, with Micronesia, South America and Southeast Asia leading the way with increases of 77.8%, 47.0% and 36.0%, respectively. However, in terms of annual increases in absolute numbers of IVAs, the destination sub-regions of Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and North America lead the way with increases of 44.6 million, 36.2 million and 12.7 million, respectively.
The expansion of IVA numbers from 2023 to 2024 will be driven primarily by sending markets in Northeast Asia, with China, Macau (China), and South Korea (Republic of Korea) expected to add 35.9 million, 8.5 million, and 7.6 million IVAs, respectively, to Asia Pacific IVA numbers. From 2023 to 2026, Northeast Asia will continue to dominate, with the top five sending markets for additional IVA generation all coming from this subregion. Specifically, seven sending markets are forecast to add more than 111 million IVAs each to Asia Pacific, with the United States being the only sending market outside of Northeast Asia on that ranking list.
Another way to appreciate Northeast Asia’s power in generating IVAs across Asia Pacific between 2023 and 2026 is to understand that of the 258.3 million additional IVAs forecasted in Asia Pacific over that period, 60% are projected to originate from Northeast Asian source markets.
The latest forecasts for 39 destinations in Asia Pacific have been developed in detail through a series of separate reports also published by PATA, which take into account additional key criteria such as IVA origin region, seasonality and air capacity changes.
Hamid commented: “This interim report is a positive indicator that the region is moving towards growth, despite potentially challenging times. Furthermore, an increase in IVAs is projected, which will contribute significantly to the full tourism economy. However, when it comes to tourism recovery and growth, we cannot go back to prioritizing arrival numbers alone. It is crucial that tourism industry stakeholders focus on managing volume growth in a responsible and sustainable way, focusing on quality tourism experiences, environmental protection and community engagement, as a way to further these positive trends.”
Theodore is co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of the TravelDailyNews Media Network and is responsible for business development and planning long-term opportunities for TravelDailyNews.
