Australia’s $3.3 billion local ski industry is in “perilous straits”, experts say, with new modelling predicting the annual ski season will be reduced by an average of 55 days by 2050 due to rising temperatures and reduced snowfall.
The country’s one-million-hectare alpine range is one of several popular tourist destinations under threat from climate change, including the Great Barrier Reef and the Blue Mountains National Park.
The “Our Changing Snowscape” report, released on Wednesday, details the threats to Australia’s lucrative ski and snowboard season and how it can be prevented from disappearing in just two generations.
The report, written by climate experts from the Australian National University (ANU) in collaboration with non-profit group Protect Our Winters, warns that no matter what we do, the average length of resort season will fall by 16 to 18 days by the 2030s.
But the country is now at a crossroads: If the government takes meaningful steps to reduce emissions, we could mitigate the severity of what happens in 2050. And by 2080, we might actually see a longer ski season.
Less snow means higher accommodation prices
The report doesn’t just worry about the future, it calls for meaningful action to help the industry weather this crisis by diversifying.
Stefan Kashkaroff, a 23-year-old student, heads the Australian National University snow sports team. He says new students are still interested in joining the club, which is just a 60-minute drive from the nearest ski field, but he says many have questions they ask before joining.
“They ask us: Should I join the club this year? Isn’t this enough? And it’s always a really hard question to answer,” he told Yahoo News. “It definitely affects our membership numbers.”
A decrease in snowfall has led to higher hotel prices in the middle of the ski season. Credit: Stefan Kashkaroff
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The students’ observations are not merely anecdotal: Australia’s snowpack is currently at its lowest in 2000, and the length of the swimming season in most alpine resorts has already decreased by 17 to 28 percent.
Another issue plaguing skiers is the rising cost of accommodation, as off-season dates disappear and competition to book dates that are guaranteed to get snow is intensifying.
“It’s hard to predict when the season will actually start, so there’s a very real risk that you’ll actually book accommodation and not get any snow,” Kashkarov said.
“Everybody’s got all their dates booked for the mid-season when they know the conditions will be a little bit better.”
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Backcountry snowboard guide Alex Parsons has been working in the industry for seven years and is based on Australia’s highest peak, Mount Kosciuszko, but the problems with snow erratics have become so severe that she is considering quitting the local industry.
“This is really tough for those of us who work as backcountry guides. No one wants to work in the rain and unfortunately it makes the work day harder for a lot of us guides,” she told Yahoo.
“Throughout the season, we haven’t been able to get out there as much as we would like. The season is starting slower and ending earlier.”
Parsons’ strong connection to Australia’s mountains has seen him continue to work here, even as some of his generation have fled for overseas destinations where the snow is more reliable.
“But in 50 years the snow will look very different, so I’m very worried that if we don’t do enough to combat climate pollution, we could be one of the last generations of backcountry guides,” she said.
Victoria’s wild mountain pygmy possum population is fewer than 2000. Credit: AAP
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The researchers’ modelling suggests that the length of the ski season could actually increase by 2080 if the world makes significant cuts to emissions.
But the gain comes with pain: Even under the low-emissions scenario, winter could be 28 days shorter in 26 years’ time. Under the median scenario, 44 days would be lost, and 55 days would be lost if fossil fuel extraction continues to expand.
Looking 55 years further out to 2080, a high emissions scenario would see the country’s ski fields close completely, meaning further wildlife loss for Australia, the country with the world’s worst record of mammal extinctions: the mountain pygmy possum and southern corroboree frog would go extinct, along with 31 native plant species.
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Now, as snowfall in the mountains continues to decline, ANU researcher and report co-author Ruby Olson said vulnerable resorts needed help to diversify into year-round facilities.
“If we don’t take action, we run a greater risk of consequences that will be difficult or impossible to reverse, such as resort closures or species extinction, which is why this decade is so crucial,” she said.
Olson’s message was supported by co-author Professor Adrienne Nicotra, who added that mountain scientists, policy makers and resort owners needed to work together to develop adaptation plans.
“The Australian Alps boast more than one million hectares of spectacular wilderness and are home to unique animals and plants found nowhere else in the world. These iconic landscapes deserve our attention,” she said.
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