Written by Annabelle Murphy
Deadly floods in Greece, wildfires in Tenerife and extreme temperatures in southern Italy during the 2023 summer holidays will make more people think about climate change, according to a study conducted by the European Travel Council. It became clear that people were becoming aware of the impact and their travel preferences were changing (and so on).
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The survey, conducted quarterly by ETC, aims to measure tourist behavior so that national tourism boards can respond to preferences and trends. 14% of respondents (up 7% from the previous survey) cited “extreme weather” as their main concern.
Climate change currently poses a major threat to one of Europe’s most important economic sectors. The tourism and travel industry employs over 22 million people and generates around 10% of Europe’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Risks are not just about the impact on the economy and companies. Hotter and more unstable climates impact the very elements that make destinations attractive in the first place: biodiversity, cultural attractions and iconic locations.
This summer has seen a number of devastating weather events, leading experts to urge the industry to prepare for a potentially longer summer spell and more extreme weather.
Climate data for 2023 puts Europe in uncharted territory
The record temperatures reported this summer help explain the severity and frequency of extreme weather events across Europe.
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According to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature across Europe this summer was 19.63°C, 0.83°C above the historical average. Rising average temperatures will make 2023 the fifth hottest summer on record.
The peak tourist months of June, July and August were the warmest on record worldwide, with an average temperature of 16.77°C, 0.66°C above average.
September and October are typically a time of cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in more record-breaking data.
September was the warmest on record, 0.5°C above the warmest September on record in 2020, and October was the warmest October on record worldwide, with an average surface temperature of 15.30°C, 0.85 above the 1991-2020 record. ℃ exceeded.
Based on the temperature anomalies recorded this year, C3S scientists concluded that 2023 is “virtually certain” to be the warmest year on record, currently 1.43C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
This number and the extent of its increase shows how rapidly our climate is changing. Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said as temperatures rise globally, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is changing.
“The goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Looking at the data this summer and the rate at which temperatures are rising, it is very worrying,” she said. said.
“Like other sectors affected by climate change, the tourism industry is in uncharted territory and must adapt as much as possible to climate change. Major tourist destinations are at the forefront of the impacts of extreme events. Wildfires and heatwaves have been particularly common in recent years.
“It is clear that these extreme events will not only impact visitors to these locations, but also the local communities and businesses that rely on domestic and international visitors for a living.”
Prepare for potential changes in travel patterns
As summer weather patterns become hotter and more extreme events occur in late summer, how can the industry adapt to changing tourist preferences and prepare for climate change?
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ETC Executive Director Eduardo Santander said companies should pay close attention to climate change as it affects the seasonality and quality of tourism in certain destinations.
While some tourist groups are choosing to spend their holidays in northern summer destinations such as Ireland, Denmark and the Czech Republic, more travelers planning a visit to the Mediterranean during peak season than last year It decreased by 10% compared to the previous year.
ETC notes that climate change is also likely to affect the seasonality of activities, with outdoor tourism activities such as hiking, boating, and sports potentially becoming more appropriate in spring and autumn when temperatures are cooler, for example. Says.
On the other hand, winter sports may be negatively affected by reduced snowfall due to rising temperatures, and affected companies will need to find new solutions and adapt accordingly.
“The tourism industry is very strong, but it needs to innovate, adapt and change. Some of these changes can be implemented in stages, such as moving towards net zero and circular business; It’s a difficult but necessary process,” Santander said.
Transitioning to a more sustainable industry
Attracting tourists during “shoulder season” or planning outdoor activities outside of the hottest hours are examples of incremental changes to improve destination comfort.
But in the long term, many companies will need to innovate to grow in a net-zero economy and serve customers who may have very different interests and values in the future.
Estonia’s tourism sector is responding to changing travel preferences by offering low-carbon holidays and events. Many businesses in this country measure their carbon emissions (related to tourists), use local supply chains to source food, and offer only vegan and vegetarian options.
“Part of our tourism strategy is to focus on sustainability by offering environmentally friendly options and doing things differently,” says Rainer, director of the Estonian Tourism Board.・Mr. Arvik stated.
“We believe that providing sustainable alternatives to carbon-intensive tourism such as cruise ships and holiday packages is what travelers are looking for. “That trend will only intensify as it becomes increasingly linked to rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions in different parts of the world,” he added.
Climate modeling: Prepare with your data
Climate forecasting is another way to help industry adapt to climate change by providing different scenarios of how the future will look different depending on location.
Combining recent satellite and in-situ data with climate forecasts for weather variables such as wind speed, temperature, humidity, and pressure to help businesses, policy makers, and other organizations proactively predict and plan for changing climate conditions. We can derive bespoke metrics to help you. .
C3S scientists are collaborating with the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development (IERSD) to develop climate suitability indicators that allow different climate variables to be quantified and ranked for specific tourist destinations and activities. I’ve been working on it.
This dataset integrates these indicators with climate projections to help understand how climate change will impact European tourism activity based on different future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. It is intended to.
“While the tourism industry cannot stop climate change alone, it can use the tools available to it to understand how well the climate in which it operates is suitable for tourism. It serves as an important decision-making tool,” said Christos Giannakopoulos, PhD in Atmospheric Modeling at the National Observatory of Athens.
“Knowledge, preparedness and action towards a more sustainable industry are key to the industry’s long-term resilience,” he concluded.
