Developing countries, which account for 52 of the 71 countries that improved since 2019, have made great progress but need significant investments to close the gap and increase their market share.
With the lifting of COVID-19 related travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand, the travel and tourism sector’s contribution to global GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Survey 2024.
The United States, Spain, Japan, France and Australia are the top economies in 2024. The Middle East will see the strongest recovery in international tourist arrivals (up 20 percent compared to 2019), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all see strong recoveries of around 90 percent in 2023.
These are some of the key findings of the Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 (TTDI), a biennial report published in collaboration with the University of Surrey, which analyses the travel and tourism sectors in 119 countries based on a range of factors and policies.
“This year is a turning point for Travel & Tourism – we know its power to drive growth and benefit communities through economic and social transformation,” said Francisco Betti, Head of the Global Industry Team at the World Economic Forum. “TTDI will provide a window into the current and future of Travel & Tourism, helping leaders stay up to date on developments in this complex industry so that it can sustainably unlock its potential for communities and countries around the world.”
Post-pandemic recovery
As the report highlights, global tourism is expected to recover from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and surpass pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by a strong increase in global demand, coinciding with an increase in available flights, greater international openness, and growing interest in and investment in natural and cultural attractions.
However, the global recovery has been mixed. 71 of the 119 ranked countries have improved their scores since 2019, but the average index score is only 0.7% above pre-pandemic levels. Although the sector has weathered the shock of the global health crisis, it continues to respond to other external challenges, including growing macroeconomic, geopolitical and environmental risks, increased scrutiny of sustainability practices, and the impact of new digital technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence. In addition, labour shortages persist, and airline capacity, capital investment, productivity and other sector supply factors have not kept pace with rising demand. This imbalance is exacerbated by global inflation, leading to increasing price and service issues.
Highlights of TTDI 2024
The 2024 TTDI includes newly available data and recently developed indicators on the environmental and social impacts of travel and tourism and is part of the Forum’s broader engagement with the industry community that is actively committed to building a better future enabled by a sustainable, inclusive and resilient industry ecosystem. Of the top 30 countries by index score in 2024, 26 are high-income countries; 19 are in Europe, seven in Asia Pacific, three in the Americas and one (United Arab Emirates) in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA). The top 10 countries in the 2024 edition are the United States, Spain, Japan, France, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Italy and Switzerland.
The survey findings highlight that high-income countries generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development, supported by favourable business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.
Yet developing countries have shown the greatest improvement in recent years. Among upper-middle-income countries, China has consolidated its position in the top 10, with major emerging economies such as Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey following China into the top quartile of the rankings. More broadly, low- to upper-middle-income countries account for more than 70% of countries that have improved their scores since 2019, with MENA and sub-Saharan Africa among the most improved regions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only high-income countries to feature in the top 10 economies expected to improve the most between 2019 and 2024.
Despite this progress, the TTDI warns that significant investment is needed to close the gap in conditions and market share between developing and high-income countries. One way to achieve this is through sustainably using natural and cultural assets, which are less correlated with a country’s income level than other factors and can offer developing countries opportunities for tourism-led economic development.
“Bridging the capability gap between different economies is essential to building a strong environment in which the travel and tourism sector can thrive,” said Is Tasiadia, professor and dean of the School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the University of Surrey. “The travel and tourism sector has great potential to drive prosperity and mitigate global risks, but that potential can only be fully realised through a strategic and comprehensive approach.”
Mitigating future global challenges
According to the World Economic Forum’s 2024 World Risk Report, the travel and tourism industry faces complex risks including geopolitical uncertainty, economic volatility, inflation and extreme weather. Balancing growth and sustainability also remains a major challenge, as tourism is highly seasonal, crowded and likely to return to pre-pandemic emissions levels. The report also analyzes persistent concerns about equity and inclusion. The tourism industry has become a major source of relatively well-paid jobs, especially in developing countries, but gender equality remains a major issue in regions such as MENA and South Asia.
Despite these challenges, tourism can play a key role in solving them. To achieve this, policymakers should prioritize actions such as leveraging tourism for conservation, investing in a skilled, inclusive and resilient workforce, strategically managing visitor behavior and infrastructure development, promoting cultural exchange between visitors and local communities, and using tourism to bridge the digital divide.
Historically accounting for 10% of global GDP and employment, the travel and tourism sector has the potential to make a significant contribution to the well-being and prosperity of communities around the world, if managed strategically.
Release date: May 29, 2024 at 8am EDT / 5am PDT / 1pm BST / 2pm CEST
Sustainable Brand Staff
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