New research from the JRC shows southern coastal regions are expected to see fewer tourists in the summer, especially under 3°C and 4°C warming scenarios, while northern coastal regions are expected to see an increase in tourism demand. has been done. Across the continent, tourist interest will decline in July and increase in April. Forecasts suggest that tourism will continue to grow as demand changes seasonally across the continent.
The study, “Regional impacts of climate change on tourism demand in Europe,” examines four climate warming levels: the Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C and 2°C) and two higher warming levels (3°C and 4°C). We are evaluating changes in tourism demand in the future.
According to the forecast, the overall impact on tourism demand in Europe is expected to be positive, with an increase of 1.58% under the highest warming scenario (4°C), but aggregate results include A high degree of diversity is hidden. There is a clear north-south pattern, with tourism demand increasing in central and northern Europe and decreasing in the south.
As the most visited region in the world, accounting for 51% of all international arrivals (743 million tourists in 2019), Europe relies heavily on tourism as a key economic driver. It directly generates 5% of the EU’s GDP. Adding the contribution of subsidiary sectors, tourism contributes directly and indirectly to more than 10% of the EU’s GDP. However, as temperatures rise and weather patterns become more unpredictable, action is needed to achieve tourism sustainability.
This study is the first regional assessment to investigate the historical and potential future impacts of climate on tourism demand in Europe, revealing a consistent and robust relationship between the two.
The study maps the impact of current climate conditions on tourism, based on data from 269 European regions over a monthly timespan of 20 years, relies on 10 climate models, and measures four warming levels (1.5 °C, 2℃, 3℃, 4℃).
At a climate warming of 1.5°C, the majority of European regions (80%) are projected to be affected by climate change only to a fairly small proportion, and tourist flows visiting these regions will increase from -1% to + It varies between 1%. The results are quite similar under the 2°C warming scenario.
Under the highest emissions scenario, the most significant impacts of climate change on tourism demand are projected in coastal areas, such as a 9.12% decrease in the Greek Ionian Islands and a 15.93% increase in West Wales (UK).
Furthermore, the largest losses (more than 5%) are expected in Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, while the largest gains (more than 5%) are expected in Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, The Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
change of seasons
Seasonal patterns are expected to change significantly, with different impacts in different regions. In the Nordic coastal regions, demand is expected to increase by more than 5% from summer to early autumn. Conversely, the southern coastal region is projected to see a nearly 10% decrease in summer tourism compared to current levels, especially under warm climate scenarios (3°C and 4°C).
In these regions, the decline in summer demand is partially offset by increases in spring, fall, and winter tourism. In total, the 4°C scenario is expected to have the highest increase in tourist numbers, amounting to +8.89% compared to today. The largest decline in European tourism demand is forecast for July, ranging from -0.06% in the 1.5°C scenario to -5.72% in the warmest climate scenario.
background
An analysis that takes into account seasonality, geographic patterns, and region typologies such as coastal and urban areas shows that a 1% increase in the TCI (Tourism Climate Index, an indicator of climate-related human comfort) increases the Tourism Climate Index. was found to increase by 0.57%. Increase in monthly overnight stays in the region. A term used to measure occupancy in the hospitality industry. However, the magnitude of the impact varies depending on the specific tourism typology. Coastal areas have been found to be most susceptible to climatic conditions.
This study builds on previous analyzes that investigated the impact of climate conditions on regional tourist flows, expressed as the number of nights spent in tourist accommodation. This will serve as a basis for future research and development, including studies on winter tourism demand, which plays a socio-economically important role in Europe’s snowy and mountainous regions.
To maintain the EU’s position as a leading tourism destination, the European Commission has published a roadmap to achieve a twin (green and digital) transition in 2022 and promote resilience in tourism. The initiative focuses on transition pathways that make tourism more environmentally friendly and highlight the connections inherent in the implementation of ongoing legal initiatives on environmental protection and climate neutrality. The Council of the European Union (2022) reinforced the call for resilience and sustainability in tourism when developing the 2030 EU Agenda on Tourism.
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Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand
