Catastrophic wildfires rage every year around the Mediterranean Sea, heat waves push temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), and droughts are commonplace, but southern European countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy are experiencing severe droughts this summer. We are once again seeing record numbers of tourists.
“At the moment, there is no change in travel behavior due to climate change,” says Stefan Goessling, a tourism professor who studies sustainability and climate change at Linnaeus University in Kalmar, Sweden.
Mediterranean countries remain popular
Italy is expected to see record numbers of tourists this year. In Spain, like most summers, hotel reservations are at capacity. According to the German Travel Association (DRV), Mediterranean countries are also among the most popular destinations for Germans this year. And the latest forecasts from the European Travel Council (ETC) reveal that France, Italy and Spain remain the most popular destinations for Europeans.
The heat in Rome reached record temperatures this summer Image: Fabio Frustaci/Ansa/Zuma/picture Alliance
“Most travelers have short-term memory,” says Professor Ulrich Reinhardt, scientific director of the Future Research Foundation in Hamburg, Germany.
Despite the risk of extreme weather, he says the sunny beaches, warm weather, friendly locals and opportunities to explore the local culture are still very appealing. “Therefore, many travelers will still want to vacation in such areas.”
Still, experts say the impact of climate change on tourism in this part of the world will continue to grow.
Southern Europe loses its charm
“It’s going to change gradually. [in tourism trends]” says Goessling. In Spain, Italy and Greece, travel during the low season will definitely become more popular in the future.
The authors of a recently published ETC study concluded that the southern region is facing a “significant reduction in tourism demand.” They say southern Europe will become less attractive as a tourist destination in the summer. Meanwhile, Northern and Central Europe could benefit from climate change and attract even more tourists.
Experts say Nordic destinations could become even more popular, like Germany’s Rügen Island Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture Alliance
Futurist Ulrich Reinhardt agrees. The northern destination has already grown in popularity in recent years. “But in 20 or 50 years, tourists won’t be spending their summer holidays exclusively in Scandinavia,” he predicts. “It’s not just because these countries aren’t suited for mass tourism; they don’t want it.”
However, destinations around the North Sea and Baltic Sea are likely to become new hotspots for Western European tourists. “In Europe, we expect Alpine tourism to return and the Eastern European region to grow in popularity,” he predicts.
Mountains, not Mallorca
Reinhardt also believes that some of Spain’s popular tourist destinations, for example, will become less fashionable in the future.
“In 20 years, there will be more tourists vacationing in the mountains than in Baleman,” he says of the popular beach on the Spanish island of Mallorca. This means that popular city break destinations will no longer be Athens, Venice or Barcelona, but places like Reykjavik, Tallinn and Copenhagen.
Wildfires are raging as temperatures rise on the Iberian Peninsula
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Southern European countries need to strategically adapt to climate change-related challenges, according to tourism researcher Stefan Goessling. But such changes are still a long way off. Southern European countries also need to change their travel offers, he says. “For too long, Mediterranean countries have placed too much emphasis on sun and sea tourism.”
However, this topic does not yet seem to be top of mind in Spain. For example, the latest industry report from Spain’s tourism association Exceltur makes no mention of climate change. Many hotels have responded by increasing air conditioning to combat the heat, but Reinhardt says that doesn’t solve the problem at all. Large-scale efforts are needed, for example, to protect against extreme weather events such as flooding, install early warning systems and improve water supplies, he added.
Spanish destination Benidorm continues to be a very popular destination this summer Image: Dimitri Drofit/Eibner/picture Alliance
The first step towards change
“Progress is slower than it needs to be,” agrees Professor Jorge Orsina, a geographer and climate change expert at a university in Alicante, southern Spain. “But at least first steps have been taken.” Spain, for example, has a climate change law in place from 2021, and some cities and regions have put in place plans to adapt to changing conditions. It is said that there is.
Benidorm, the tourist hub of the Costa Blanca, aims to promote the low season more intensively. This is partly because rising temperatures pose challenges to summer tourism. However, in this high season, Benidorm is still very popular. The local hotel management association expects occupancy to be 90% in August.
This article was originally written in German.
