By Robert M. Cutler
A new World Bank report on Central Asia Connectivity, released in April 2024, highlights the importance of the Central Corridor, a trade route that spans Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus, connecting China and East Asia with Georgia, Turkey, and Europe. The corridor is seen as a key alternative to the Russian-controlled route, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions. The World Bank identified 10 steps to address bottlenecks in the Central Corridor, aiming to triple trade volumes by 2030. This could significantly reduce travel times and increase trade volumes to 11 million tons if the right investments and efficiency measures are implemented.
Uzbekistan and the Central Corridor
The report stresses that improving transport connectivity in Central Asia requires a “holistic” approach, meaning a comprehensive and integrated strategy that combines improving infrastructure and logistics, reducing delays and customs duties at borders, and harmonising standards between countries.
This would include improving both physical and digital infrastructure, improving governance and efficiency, and addressing productivity issues at state-owned enterprises that dominate the region’s transport sector. The World Bank noted that Uzbekistan would benefit from improved rail connections with Kazakhstan, but did not identify any potential such projects.
This is likely because a World Bank report identified the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR) through southern Kazakhstan as a priority program for international assistance. Uzbekistan’s participation in the Central Corridor is still in the development stage. Tashkent has shown active interest and is strategically located geographically, but specific actions and project details have yet to be revealed. No specific infrastructure projects or investments being undertaken by Uzbekistan within the framework of the Central Corridor have been made public yet. However, it is predictable that railway modernization will be high on the list of programs.
However, Kazakhstan is currently working on a new rail project, the Darvaza-Maktaral Line, which, if extended, could improve connectivity with Uzbekistan. It is scheduled for completion in 2025. The second phase, which will include an extension to Kazakhstan’s Syrdaryo station, could build an additional branch line from Syrdaryo to the Uzbek border at Djetisai. The project would decongest the existing Saryagash border crossing between the two countries and increase the capacity to transport goods between the two countries by 10 million tons per year.
Improving Middle Corridor and Digital Connectivity
Currently, connectivity in the region is limited. Although Central Asian countries have invested heavily in infrastructure since the turn of the century, the region lags behind middle-income countries in both investment and maintenance. Most of the region continues to suffer from a lack of infrastructure and high costs of services, which hinders domestic and international trade potential.
The World Bank report also provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities for improving connectivity in Central Asia. To this end, the report focuses on both physical and digital infrastructure and highlights the importance of digital connectivity. The World Bank aims to support strengthening digital governance in the region to overcome low internet penetration and slow download speeds.
Improving these indicators is expected to boost the private retail telecommunications sector and facilitate the provision of Internet access and services through renovated networks. To that end, the report includes efforts to set up Earth Stations to host integrated Internet exchange points and data centers in the region. Finally, the report highlights the importance of cooperation between countries and stakeholders, and the need to create appropriate forums for this purpose, in order to improve trade and economic prospects in the region.
Related to this, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which covers Central Asia and the South Caucasus as a whole, recently projected that the region’s economic growth will slow from 5.3% in 2023 (boosted by re-exports and Russian migrant inflows) to 4.3% in 2024, before recovering to 5.0% in 2025. In tacit cooperation with the World Bank, the ADB has also published a guide on designing, establishing and operating logistics centers, including the policies needed to support them.
Conclusion
A revitalized and expanded Central Corridor will provide Central Asia with an opportunity to increase its geopolitical influence and economic resilience. Although Uzbekistan is not at the center of international attention on the Central Corridor, Tashkent hopes to leverage its strategic location to continue to foster significant economic growth.
Cooperative efforts encouraged by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have the potential to transform Central Asia into a more dynamic and interconnected economic region. Uzbekistan is widely represented in discussions on such cooperation, but “deep-dive” platforms focused specifically on Uzbekistan still seem to be few and far between.
Robert M. Cutler has been writing and consulting on Central Asian affairs at all levels for over 30 years. He is a founding member of the board of directors of the Association for Central Eurasian Studies and was the founding editor of its publication, Perspectives. He has contributed to numerous media outlets, including Asia Times, Foreign Policy Magazine, The National Interest, Euractive, Radio Free Europe, The National Post (Toronto) and the Soviet Oil and Gas Monitor. He is the director of the Energy Security Program for the Canadian NATO Association and a Senior Fellow there. He is also a practitioner at the Complexity and Innovation Institute at the University of Waterloo. Educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the School of International Affairs (Geneva) and the University of Michigan, he was a long-time senior fellow at the Institute for Europe, Russia and Eurasia at Carleton University and is a past president of the board of directors of the Montreal Press Club.
